Apr 17, 2024
Corn Stunt Disease Impacting Corn in Argentina
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rains were active across Argentina over the weekend with the heaviest rains favoring central Santa Fe and central Buenos Aires. Rains will remain active across eastern and southern Argentina for the next few days which will slow the corn harvest progress.
The 2023/24 Argentina corn estimate was lowered again this week due to corn stunt disease which was not anticipated as recently as a few weeks ago (see previous article). It has caught almost everyone in Argentina by surprise and as a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their corn estimate to 49.5 million tons and the Rosario Exchange lowered their corn estimate to 50.5 million tons. The insect thrives in dry and warm conditions. The forecast for this week is wetter and cooler, so that might help control the spread of the insect and corn stunt.
In fact, the yields from the early planted corn have been good, but yields are expected to decline significantly in the later planted corn that has been most impacted by the disease. Therefore, the Argentina corn estimate was lowered 3.0 million tons this week to 50.0 million and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.
Corn in Argentina was 15.3% harvested as of late last week and the average corn yield thus far is 8,840 kg/ha (140.5 bu/ac), which is down 6.7 bu/ac from the prior week. In the core production areas, early yields are good in the range of 10,120 to 10,380 kg/ha (160.9 to 165.0 bu/ac). On the low end are yields from southern Buenos Aires and southern La Pampa which are in the range of 5,140 kg/ha (81.7 bu/ac).
The corn in Argentina was rated 36% poor/very poor, 45% fair, and 19% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage was up 2% from the prior week. The soil moisture for the corn was rated 34% short/very short and 66% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum was unchanged from the prior week. Below is the Argentina corn rating for April 11, 2024 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2023/24 Argentina Corn Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Mar. 6, 2024 | 13 (59) | 29 (5) | 23 (65) | 77 (35) |
| Mar. 13, 2024 | 17 (60) | 25 (7) | 23 (63) | 76 (37) |
| Mar. 21, 2024 | 21 (58) | 24 (5) | 21 (55) | 77 (45) |
| Mar. 27, 2024 | 25 (53) | 22 (9) | 28 (49) | 71 (51) |
| Apr. 4, 2024 | 32 (52) | 17 (6) | 33 (45) | 66 (55) |
| Apr. 11, 2024 | 36 (53) | 19 (6) | 34 (46) | 66 (54) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages