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April 17, 2019

Early 2018/19 Argentine Soybean Yields Exceed Expectations

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The soybean harvest in Argentina increased to 16.9% complete late last week. This represented an advance of 10.5% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans are 30-40% harvested with generally less than 20% harvested in the southern areas and less than 5% harvested in the far northern areas. The early planted soybeans are 23.7% harvested and the later planted soybeans are 36.7% mature.

Early soybean yields continue to exceed expectations. In their running soybean yield, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating the average yield thus far at 4,040 kg/ha (59.7 bu/ac), which is the highest yield for this phase of the harvest in 15 years. The soybean yields will not stay at this level for the entire harvest season, but it is certainly off to a very good start. I am more optimistic this week concerning the soybean crop in Argentina, therefore I increased the production estimate 1.0 million tons to 56.0 million.

In their weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the 2018/19 soybean crop at 9.6% poor to very poor and 53.9% good to excellent, which is a little better than last week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 12.8% short to very short and 35.6% optimum to surplus, which is a little worse than last week.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicated two weeks ago that they might increase their soybean estimate and they followed through last week by increasing it 2.0 million tons to 55.0 million. The Rosario Exchange increased their soybean estimate last week by 2 million tons to 56 million tons. The USDA left their estimate unchanged last week at 55.0 million.