Aug 29, 2024
2024 U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 183.5 bu/ac
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2024 U.S. corn yield was left unhanged this week at 183.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral to maybe even a slightly lower bias going forward. The corn production is estimated at 15.17 billion bushels.
The weather over the weekend and early this week has turned hotter and dryer with some of the highest temperatures of the summer. The high temperatures are not going to last very long, but they will probably be detrimental to the corn in previously dry areas. If the dry pattern persists, it could potentially trim the corn yield especially in the central and southern areas.
The 2024 U.S. corn yield may not be quite as robust as the USDA (or myself) had been expecting. That is the conclusion I took away from the results of last week's Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the 2024 U.S. corn yield at 181.1 bu/ac compared to the USDA's August estimate of 183.1 bu/ac. Their yield range is +/- 1% or 182.9 bu. to 179.3 bu. The 2024 U.S. corn production was estimated at 14.979 billion bushels compared to the USDA August estimate of 15.147 bushels. Their production range is +/- 1% or 15.129 billion bu. to 14.829 billion bu.
How did we get to this point with record corn yields? Well, according to Farmdoc Daily, the most important factors impacting corn yield are in order:
- July precipitation - by far the most important factor and we had good moisture during July.
- Second is July temperature - we had cool temperatures during July resulting in successful pollination.
- Third is late planting - that was not much of a factor this year.
- Fourth is August temperature - the first half of August was generally below normal temperatures.
- And fifth is August precipitation - precipitation during early August was OK, but the recent weather has turned dryer.
The corn is 84% dough compared to 85% last year and 83% average. The corn is 46% dented compared to 46% last year, and 42% average with 11% mature compared to 8% last year and 6% average.