Aug 12, 2021

U.S. Yield Estimates Prior to Release of August Crop Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Below are my current estimates for the 2021 U.S. corn and soybean crops. These are my estimates for the final crop yields and not what I think the USDA will estimate in the August Crop Report.

2021 U.S. Corn Yield 175.5 bu/ac - The 2021 U.S. corn yield is estimated at 175.5 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward.

With the improved corn rating and more rainfall over the weekend and early this week, I am a little more confident about the U.S. corn crop although I left the corn yield unchanged this week while we wait for the August Crop Report.

There were some rains last week and over the weekend in the dryer areas of the northwestern Corn Belt especially in Wisconsin, Minnesota, northeastern South Dakota, and southeastern Nebraska. On Monday there were additional rains in northeastern Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Later this week, the rainfall will be focused more across the central and eastern Corn Belt and then it turns dryer in the 6-10 day forecast.

The corn condition improved 2% last week to 64% rated good to excellent. The corn is 95 silking compared to 96% last year and 94% average. The corn is 56% in dough compared to 56% last year and 51% average. The corn is 8% dented compared to 10% last year and 11% average.

2021 U.S. Soybean Yield 50.0 bu/ac - The 2021 U.S. soybean yield is estimated at 50.0 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward.

Recent rains benefited the soybeans in the dryer areas, but more rain will be needed going forward. The soybeans did not respond as positively as the corn to the recent rainfall, but the ratings could improve next week. The 6-10 day forecast looks dryer, so rainfall this week will help carry the crop forward.

The soybean condition held steady last week at 60% rated good to excellent. The soybeans were 91% blooming compared to 91% last year and 89% average. The soybeans were 72% setting pods compared to 73% last year and 68% average.