Feb 11, 2022

Conab Lowers Brazil's 2021/22 Soybean Production 15 Million Tons

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In Conab's February Crop Report released on February 10, 2022, they lowered the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production by 15 million tons to 125.47 million. The 2021/22 Brazilian corn production was lowered 0.56 million tons to 112.34 million.

A severe drought in southern Brazil during November, December and early January resulted in lower production estimates for Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. In the hardest hit areas of those states, soybean yields were down as much as 60-70-80% with some fields not even harvested since the yields were so poor.

The nationwide soybean yield in Brazil is now estimated at 3,091 kg/ha (46.0 bu/ac) which is down 387 kg/ha (5.8 bu/ac) from their January estimate of 3,478 kg/ha (51.8 bu/ac). The 2021/22 soybean acreage was increased 190,000 hectares (469,300 acres) compared to January to 40.58 million hectares (100.2 million acres). The 2021/22 soybean acreage is now up 3.5% compared to last year.

Brazil's soybean production is now down 9.2% compared to last year or 12.68 million tons. The soybeans were planted in a timely manner raising expectations for a record large crop, but starting in November, hot and dry conditions developed in southern Brazil and persisted during the critical pod filling period. At the same time, record or near record high temperatures in southern Brazil increased the moisture stress on the soybeans.

For Brazil's corn production, Conab only made modest changes in the 2021/22 Brazil corn estimate. The corn production was trimmed 0.56 million tons to 112.34 million. The first corn crop production is estimated at 24.43 million tons, while the safrinha corn production is estimated at 86.05 million tons and the third corn crop is estimated at 1.85 million tons.

Brazil's 2021/22 corn production is estimated to be up 29% compared to last year or 25.2 million tons. The 2020/21 corn production in Brazil was severely impacted by a record drought across much of the production area.

La Nina is being blamed for Brazil's adverse weather both last growing season and this growing season. La Nina conditions are expected to moderate in the coming months, but it could still result in irregular rains in southern Brazil and the potential for early frosts in southern Brazil which could impact the safrinha corn in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.