Aug 23, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Safrinha Corn 90% Harvested

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2021/22 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 112.0 million tons and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.

Conab lowered their corn estimate 1.0 million tons in their August report to 114.6 million and they may lower it again in their September report due to disappointing yields at the end of the harvest. Eventually, we both may end up in the range of 113.0 million tons for Brazil's 2021/22 corn production.

The safrinha corn harvest in Brazil was 90% as of late last week compared to 79% last year according to AgRural. Recent rains in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo slowed the corn harvest in those states.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso is complete and farmers are focusing on preparing for their 2022/23 soybean crop (see prior article).

Parana - The corn harvest in Parana was 79% as of late last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral).

In the municipality of Itambe in northern Parana, the corn harvest is complete with the average yield in the municipality of approximately 78 sacks per hectare (74 bu/ac), which is below the historical average of 100-110 sacks per hectare (95.4 to 105 bu/ac) Even at this lower level, it is better than last year when 50 days of dry weather resulted in some of the corn not being harvested. Unfortunately, this marks 3-4 corn crops in a row that have been disappointing.

Farmers are hoping for a better result with their 2022/23 crops and they are already preparing for their next soybean crop which they hope to plant between September 20th and October 10th.

2022/23 corn planting in Brazil - The 2022/23 first corn crop in Brazil was approximately 1.8% planted as of late last week compared to 4.1% last year according to AgRural. The state of Rio Grande do Sul is where most of the corn has been planted. Emater is reporting that as much as 30% of the intended corn in parts of northwestern Rio Grande do Sul has been planted and statewide, approximately 7-8% of the corn has been planted.