Nov 15, 2022
2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 69% Planted vs. 78% Last Year
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Most of the rainfall last week was limited to northern and northeastern Brazil with limited amounts across central and southern Brazil. Some dryness has developed across central Brazil especially in eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, and parts of Minas Gerais. The dryness is slowing the completion of the soybean planting and the germination of the latest planted soybeans. Farmers in the region are anxious that the forecast for improved chances of rain verifies.
The 2022/23 Brazil soybean crop was 69% planted as of late last week compared to 78% last year according to Ag Rural. This represents an advance of 12% for the week. The soybean planting in Mato Gross is most advanced at 96% with 79% of the soybeans planted in Parana.
Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso had planted 96% of the soybeans as of late last week compared to 99% last year and 91,6% average. This represents an advance of 2.6% for the week. The slowest planting is in northeastern Mato Grosso where 81% of the soybeans have been planted. The early soybeans will be available for harvest starting in January which should afford ample time to plant safrinha corn and safrinha cotton. Below is the soybean planting progress for Mato Grosso (red line). The slight decline in the planting pace compared to previous weeks is due to pockets of dryness in eastern Mato Grosso.
Parana - The soybeans in Parana were 79% planted as of earlier last week. The soybeans were 21% germinating, 78% in vegetative development, and 1% flowering. The soybeans were rated 1% poor, 5% average, and 94% good.
Rio Grande do Sul - The 2022/23 soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 17% planted as of late last week compared to 28% last year and 26% average according to Emater. This represents an advance of 12% for the week. The soybean planting pace in the state is slow because most of the soybeans are planted after the wheat is harvested and the wheat harvest has been slow this year.
As of late last week, the wheat harvest in Rio Grande do Sul was 37% compared to 71% last year and 80% average. This represented an advance of 25% for the previous week. Recent wet weather had slowed the early wheat harvest, but the additional moisture helped the final grain filling of the wheat.
In the November WASDE Report, the USDA left their 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 152.0 million tons. The highest estimates in Brazil are about 154 mt and the lowest estimates are about 148 mt. Conab is estimating the crop at 153.5 million tons.
The analysts with the higher estimates do not feel that La Nina will pose a significant threat to the crop. The analysts with the lower estimates express caution and feel that La Nina could still poise a problem for the soybeans in southern Brazil.