May 16, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn Avoids Frost Damage

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

I increased the Brazilian corn estimate 1.0 million tons this week mainly because the safrinha corn is one week closer to the end without having suffered a frost. There was a frost late last week in southern Brazil, but it was confined to the higher elevations of Parana and Santa Catarina.

The weather last week was dry in central Brazil and it is getting dryer in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. There are areas of northern Parana where the last rain was about 20 days ago. The forecast looks dry for central and southern Brazil, which I think could limit some of the safrinha corn yields. That is why I am on the low end of some of the Brazilian corn estimates.

On the other hand, the safrinha corn acreage was increased in Conab's May Report. Conab has a history of increasing the crop acreage late in the growing season and they did it for the 2022/23 safrinha corn by increasing the acreage 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres) in May compared to April. If they keep increasing the acreage, that could compensate for any potential lower yields due to dry weather.

In their May Crop Report released last week, Conab increased Brazil's 2022/23 corn estimate by 0.66 million tons to 125.5 million. The safrinha corn acreage was increased 30,000 hectares compared to April to 16.93 million (41.81 million acres). The yield of the safrinha corn was up 0.60 bu/ac compared to last month to 90.2 bu/ac.

In the May WASDE Report, the USDA increased the 2022/23 Brazil corn estimate by 5.0 million tons to 130.0 million.