Jul 06, 2023

2023 U.S. Soybean Yield Unchanged at 50.5 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 50.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward.

Rainfall over the weekend favored the south-central and eastern Midwest. They helped to ease the dryness in southern Iowa, northern Illinois, and Indiana. The forecast for this week is calling for rain in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt with seasonal temperatures. Rainfall over the next 10 days should further ease dryness concerns in the Corn Belt.

In the dryer areas, the growth of the soybeans has been slowed by the dry conditions resulting in very short soybeans for this time of the year. Soybean growth will resume in areas that received rain last week and over the weekend. It is not too late for soybeans to recuperate from the dry weather during June, but the rainfall needs to be consistent for the remainder of the growing season.

The percentage of the soybean crop rated good/excellent declined 1% last week to 50%. The soybeans are now 24% blooming compared to 15% last year 20% average. Soybeans setting pods are 4% compared to 3% last year and 2% average.

In the June Planted Report, the 2023 U.S. soybean planted acreage was estimated at 83.50 million acres, down 3.94 million compared to 2022. The soybean harvested acreage is estimated at 82.69 million acres or 99.0% of planted. The percentage harvested (99.0%) is the same as what had been used in the WASDE reports, which might be slightly optimistic. We will get a better idea concerning any potential additional soybean abandonment later in the season. I am going to adopt the USDA"s soybean planted acreage and soybean harvested acreage for now, but the harvested acreage may be trimmed slightly in the future.

The June Planted soybean acreage is down 4.0 million acres from the March Prospective Plantings Report. As you can see on the table below, 15 of the 18 major soybean states registered a decrease in soybean acreage from March to June.

Change in Soybean Acreage – March 31 to June 30, 2023

Kentucky 0
South Dakota 0
Tennessee 0
Michigan -50,000
North Carolina -100,000
Indiana -100,000
Arkansas -150,000
Wisconsin -200,000
Ohio -200,000
Nebraska -250,000
Kansas -350,000
Missouri -400,000
Iowa -400,000
Illinois -800,000
North Dakota-900,000