Oct 17, 2023

Brazilian Weather Thus Far Has Been a Tale of Two Extremes

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather in Brazil thus far this early growing season has been a tale of two extremes. Southern Brazil has been inundated with torrential rain with more in the forecast for this week, while northern Brazil, including much of the Amazon region, is experiencing an extended period of record heat and drought. The near-term forecast is calling for more of the same with wet weather in southern Brazil and scattered showers in central Brazil. The longer-range forecast is calling for below normal rainfall in central, north, and northeastern Brazil until the end of October.

Dry weather in east-central and northeastern Brazil is the biggest concern at the present time. In states such as eastern Mato Grosso, northern Goias, Tocantins, Bahia, and Maranhao farmers are waiting for improved soil moisture before they plant their soybeans. Even if the soybeans are planted later than desired in these regions, they still could have average yields if the weather cooperates during the remainder of the growing season.

A bigger concern in this region is for the safrinha corn which if planted late, usually ends up with a lower yield potential. An El Nino can also result in an early end to the summer rainy season, which could also impact the safrinha corn.