Jun 26, 2024

2023/24 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 114.0 Million Tons

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 114.0 million tons and I have a neutral bias going forward.

The safrinha corn in Brazil was 34% harvested as of late last week compared to 9% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 13% for the week and is a record fast harvest pace. Hot and dry weather over the past two months has accelerated the crop's development. Over the last two months, temperatures in south-central Brazil have averaged 3°C to 7°C above average (5°F to 12°F)

Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported that 37.5% of the safrinha corn in the state had been harvested as of late last week compared to 19.2% last year and 27.4% average. This represents an advance of 15.4% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 49% of the soybeans are harvested. Below is the corn harvest progress in Mato Grosso for June 21, 2024 from Imea. As you can see, it is moving along at a very fast pace.


Corn yields in Mato Grosso are generally good, but variable depending on location. Imea is estimating the statewide average corn yield at 110.02 sacks per hectare (104.9 bu/ac). Imea is estimating the 2023/24 corn production in the state at 45.8 million tons compared to 52.5 million in 2022/23.

The picture below illustrates the chronic shortage of grain storage in the state requiring much of the corn to be stored temporarily in the open air during the dry season. The piles must be picked up before the onset of the summer rainy season which can begin in early September. This lack of storage is also a concern for the corn ethanol sector (see next article).


Safrinha corn in Mato Grosso stored temporarily in the open air during the dry season. Photo courtesy of So Noticias.

Parana - The Department of Rural Economics for the state of Parana (Deral) reported that 29% of the safrinha corn in the state had been harvested as of earlier last week. This represents an advance of 13% for the week. Of the remaining crop 23% is filling grain and 77% is maturing. The corn is rated 17% poor, 31% average, and 52% good.

The regions where the corn harvest is most advanced include Pitanga (64%), Pato Branco (53%), Campo Mourao and Toledo (52%), Ponta Grossa (50%), and Cascavel (40%).

Corn yields in northern Parana are below expectations due to extended periods of dryness during the growing season, especially for the earlier planted corn. The hardest hit area is northwestern Parana where many farmers are harvesting their corn for silage instead of grain production and others are activating their crop insurance due to low yields.

In the west-central and western regions, early yields are good, but they are expected to decline when the harvest moves into the later maturing corn. In southern Parana, yields are better than expected due to adequate rainfall during the growing season.

Mato Grosso do Sul - Corn yields in the northern part of the state are generally good, but yields are very disappointing in the southern part of the state due to prolonged periods of dryness. A worst-case scenario in southern Mato Grosso do Sul would be the municipality of Laguna Carapa. The corn is 15-20% harvested and yields are in the range of 40-45 sacks per hectare (38-43 bu/ac) when yields are normally in the range of 98-100 sacks per hectare (93.4-95.4 bu/ac). Farmers are worried they will lose money on their safrinha corn because the cost of production is in the range of 55-60 sacks per hectare (52.4-57.2 bu/ac).t