Jun 28, 2024

Safrinha Corn 20% Harvested in Tocantins, Yields Disappoint

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The safrinha corn in the state of Tocantins in northern Brazil is 20% harvested and farmers are expecting production to be down compared to last year. According to the president of the Soybean & Corn Producers Association of Tocantins (Aprosoja/TO), the planted acreage declined in 2023/24 and the early yields are disappointing.

Yields are expected to be below the 100 to 105 sacks per hectare registered last year (95.4 to 100 bu/ac) due to problems during germination and hot and dry conditions at the end of the growing season.

Farmers have not forward contracted much of their anticipated production due to low prices and uncertainty concerning production. According to the president of Aprosoja/TO, with normal yields, the current price of R$ 48.00 to R$ 50.00 per sack ($4.10 to $4.30) would be enough to cover the cost of production. With the lower yields, prices would need to be in the range of R$ 55.00 to R$ 60.00 per sack ($4.70 to $5.15) to cover the cost of production.

Nationwide, the safrinha corn in Brazil was 34% harvested as of late last week compared to 9% last year according to AgRural. This represented an advance of 13% for the week and is a record fast harvest pace. Hot and dry weather over the past two months has accelerated the crop's development. Over the last two months, temperatures in central Brazil have averaged 3°C to 7°C above average (5°F to 12°F).