Jul 03, 2024

2024 U.S. Soybean Harvested Acreage Reduced 750,000 Acres

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Soybean acreage - In the June Planted Report, the USDA indicated that U.S. farmers would plant 86.1 million acres of soybeans and that they would harvest 85.261 million acres, or 99.0% of planted. This represented a decrease of 410,000 acres from the March Perspective planting report. They indicated that farmers still had 12.8 million acres of soybeans left to plant or 12.5% of the total. The soybean acreage came in below the average trade estimate.

The June Planted survey did not account for any losses in the northwestern Corn Belt due to the ponding and flooding. In the impacted states, there are 9.9 million acres of soybeans in Iowa, 7.6 million in Minnesota, 6.8 million in North Dakota, 5.3 million in Nebraska, 5.1 million in South Dakota, and 2.15 million in Wisconsin for a total of 36.85 million in those six states.

If we assume that 2% of the soybeans in those six states were lost to ponding/flooding etc., that equates to about 750,000 acres plus or minus. Therefore, the soybean harvested acreage is 84.511 million acres or 98.1% of planted.

Soybean yield and production - I left the nationwide soybean yield at 52.0 bu/ac with a neutral to potentially lower bias. Therefore the 2024 U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.39 billion bushels.

Soybeans are 95% emerged compared to 97% last year and 93% average. Soybeans are 20% blooming compared to 20% last year and 15% average and the soybeans are 3% setting pods compared to 3% last year and 2% average.

We also need to keep track of the dryness is the southeastern U.S. from Virginia down to Georgia. This is not a big soybean producing area, but these four states have a combined 2.72 million acres of soybeans (Virginia 630,000 acres, North Carolina 1,550,000 acres, South Carolina 380,000 acres, and Georgia 160,000 acres). The near-term forecast for the region is generally dry with increased chances of rain in the 6-10 day period.

The weather last week was more cooperative with some rain in the dryer eastern Corn Belt and a few days of dry weather in the northwestern Corn Belt. Temperatures were also cooler last week, which was beneficial for the most part. The forecast for this week is calling for rain across much of the Midwest with cooler to seasonal temperatures. However, continued rains in the northwestern Midwest will maintain wetness concerns.