Aug 12, 2024
Frosts in Southern Brazil Could Impact the Winter Wheat Crop
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Cold weather is expected to sweep into Brazil early this week threatening the winter wheat crop in southern Brazil. The coldest temperatures of the year thus far are expected this week. In the state of Parana, a hard freeze is expected across central and southern regions of the state with light frost across northern Parana.
The most sensitive stage of wheat for frost damage is flowering and grain filling. As of earlier last week, 27% of the wheat in Parana was in vegetative development, 25% was flowering, 38% was filling grain, 10% was maturing, and 1% was harvested. The coldest temperatures are expected in the region of the state where the wheat is least developed.
Most of the wheat harvested thus far has been in northern Parana where previous hot and dry conditions negatively impacted the crop. Parana is expected to produce approximately 3 million tons of wheat in 2024 with Brazil producing 9 million tons.
Frosts are expected to be widespread across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is Brazil's largest wheat producing state. But, the wheat in the state was planted later than in Parana and not much of the crop is at a sensitive stage. As of last week, Emater rated the wheat at 98% germinating or in vegetative development and 2% flowering. Therefore, the potential frost/freeze is not expected to cause extensive damage to the wheat in the state.
The state of Rio Grande do Sul is expected to produce 4 million tons of wheat in 2024.