Sep 05, 2024
AgRural Estimates 2024/25 Soy Acreage in Brazil Will Increase 0.9%
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazilian farmers will start planting their 2024/25 soybean crop as soon as there is adequate soil moisture to ensure germination and stand establishment. In central Brazil, the recent weather has been hot and dry with record temperatures and no rain in the forecast. The last rainfall in central Brazil was about the third week of April.
Usually, the first summer rain in central Brazil occurs during the first half of September but this year, it is not forecasted to occur until sometime during the second half of September. Some metrologists are forecasting that there will not be any significant rainfall until early October.
A delay in planting soybeans may not impact the potential soybean yield if the weather during the summer growing season is beneficial. A delay in soybean planting though could directly impact the yield potential of the second crop of corn if the planting is delayed past the ideal planting window which closes about the third week of February.
The 2024/25 soybean acreage in Brazil is uncertain. Domestic soybean prices are the lowest in four years, which should limit the soybean expansion.
In their latest report, AgRural is estimating that the 2024/25 soybean acreage in Brazil will expand 0.9% to 46.4 million hectares (114.6 million acres). If verified, it would be the smallest expansion in 18 years. The last time the soybean acreage contracted in Brazil was the 2006/07 growing season. Soybean acreage contracted that year due to low prices and a widespread infestation of a new soybean disease - Asia soybean rust.
AgRural is estimating the 2024/25 soybean production in Brazil at 168.0 million tons, which would represent an increase of 14% compared to the problematic 2023/24 crop. The 2023/24 crop in Mato Grosso, Parana and other states suffered from hot and dry conditions, whereas the crop in Rio Grande do Sul was inundated by historic flooding.