Jun 20, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 130.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 130.0 million tons with a neutral to slightly higher bias.
Harvesting the 2024/25 safrinha corn has gotten off to a relatively slow start with 5.2% harvested compared to 21% last year. This represents an advance of 3.3% for the week. Mato Grosso is 7.2% harvested with Parana less than 1% due to frequent rains and high grain moisture. Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul received more rain over the weekend.
Farmers are indicating that the seed moisture is still relatively high and they would prefer letting the corn dry down in the field as opposed to paying for drying.
Usually by this time of the year the weather in Brazil is very dry, but this year the summer rains have extended into June, which benefits yields but slows the initial harvest. Many states in Brazil are expecting record corn yields.
In their June Crop Report, Conab increased the 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate 1.37 million tons to 128.25 million. They increased the safrinha corn estimate to 101.0 million tons although they are still below many local estimates that range from 105 to 114 million tons. In the July WASDE Report, the USDA left the Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 130.0 million tons.