Jan 07, 2026
2025/26 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 178.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Weather continues to be supportive for the Brazilian soybean crop and if these conditions persist, the Brazilian soybean estimate will likely increase. Rain last week in Brazil favored central and far northwestern areas. The rain has improved soil moisture, but more rain is still needed in north central and northeastern areas. Rains should favor northern areas early this week, which should ease dryness. Rain should then shift into central and southern areas later this week, maintaining moisture there.
The rain improved soil moisture for crops in northern growing areas, while drier weather in southern areas allowed any minor wetness to ease. Rain this week is expected to favor northern and far southern growing areas in Brazil, which should further boost soil moisture in northern areas.
Brazil harvest progress - Early harvest activity has started in Mato Grosso and Parana. Thus far it has been confined to early maturing varieties or soybeans that were irrigated. Probably less than 1% of the soybeans have been harvested nationwide and the harvest pace will now start to accelerate.
Early yield results are promising and if the weather continues to cooperate, the soybean production estimate could move higher. One key area to watch is the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is expected to be the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso.
Rio Grande do Sul - Soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul was 93% as of late last week according to Emater. Planting has been slowed due to heavy rains during December, especially in the northwestern part of the state which resulted in damage to rural infrastructure and localized flooding along rivers and in low lying areas. The soybean acreage is estimated at 6.74 million hectares (16.6 million acres)with an anticipated yield of 3,180 kg/ha (47.3 bu/ac). Soybeans are 93% in vegetative development, 7% flowering, and generally in satisfactory condition.