Jan 28, 2026
Brazil Soy Estimate Increased 1.0 mt to 179.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazilian soybeans were 4.9% harvested as of late last week compared to 3.9% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 2.9% for the week. Mato Grosso leads the way with 13.8% harvested.
Rainfall over the weekend favored northern and east-central Brazil with southern Brazil remaining dry. Rainfall this week will favor northwestern areas early in the week and central areas later in the week. Rain will be scarce in southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul which needs to be monitored closely.
Brazil's soybean estimate was increased 1.0 million tons this week to 179.0 million based on strong early yields. With 4.9% of the crop harvested, many early yields are in the range of 60 to 65 bu/ac with some as high as 70 bu/ac. The average yield will likely decline as the harvest progresses.
Even though I increased the soybean estimate, I am still concerned about the crop. The first concern is hot and dry weather forecasted for this week in south-central and southern Brazil. There is little rainfall in the forecast with temperatures in the 90's to low 100's. This could especially be important for the state of Rio Grande do Sul which is expected to be the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso.
The second concern is the fact that Conab has lowered the 2025/26 soybean acreage two months in a row. Conab is estimating the soybean acreage at approximately one million acres below the USDA. The dilemma is who is correct - Conab or the USDA? We may get some clarity in the February WASDE report and the February Conab report. If the USDA lowers the soybean acreage in February, then maybe Conab is correct. Conversely, if Conab increases the soybean acreage in February, then maybe the USDA is correct.
Most private estimates for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production have been increasing in recent weeks based on strong early yields. The estimates range from a low of 177 million tons to a high of 183 million. AgRural increased their soybean estimate 0.6 million tons from last month to 181.0 million.
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 13.8% harvested as of late last week compared to 4.3% last year and 5.6% average. This represents an advance of 7% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 22% of the soybeans have been harvested. Most farmers continue to report strong early yields. Below is the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso for January 23, 2026 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Parana - Soybeans in Parana are 3% in vegetative development, 22% flowering, 55% filling pods, 20% mature, 3% harvested and rated 1% poor, 10% average, and 89% good. Early yields are reported to be satisfactory and within initial expectations.
Goias - The state of Goias suffered the most from irregular rainfall early in the growing season. Soybean harvesting is just now getting underway in Goias and some farmers are reporting that their soybean yields may be down 10% from last year.