Feb 10, 2026
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 179.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Over the weekend, rain favored east central and northwestern growing areas of Brazil. The rainfall in Mato Grosso slowed soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting a bit. Rainfall this week will once again favor northern Brazil. Dryness remains a concern in southern Brazil, with some rain in the forecast for southern Brazil next week.
Brazil soybeans were 16% harvested as of late last week compared to 15% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 6% for the week. Harvesting is now under way in nearly all the major states with Mato Grosso 39% harvested, Parana 14%, and Goias 3%.
There are now two concerns in Brazil - poor quality seed in parts of northern Mato Grosso and continued hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. I view both of these situations as something that may not necessarily result in a lower estimate (at least not yet) but could keep the estimate from moving higher. Therefore, the 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 179.0 million tons.
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 39.6% harvested as of last Friday compared to 28.5% last year and 25.7% average. This represents an advance of 14.6% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 58% of the soybeans have been harvested.
While most reported yields in Mato Grosso are good, there are some disappointing yields reported from eastern Mato Grosso. Rainfall during September, October, and the first half of November was below normal in eastern Mato Grosso resulting in soybean yields that are expected to be lower than in 2024/25.
Below is the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso for February 6, 2026 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Parana - Soybeans in Parana were 14% harvested as of earlier last week compared to 23% last year according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). This represents an advance of 9% for the week. The remainder of the crop is 7% flowering, 59% filling pods, 34% mature, and 14% harvested and rated 1% poor, 10% average, and 89% good. Good yields continue to be reported from the state. In the municipality of Palotina in western Parana, the initial expectation was 60 sacks per hectare (53.6 bu/ac), but many yields are coming in at 80 sacks per hectare (71.5 bu/ac) with some as high as 100 sacks per hectare (89.4 bu/ac).
Rio Grande do Sul - Soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul last week continued to be impacted by irregular rainfall, short soil moisture, and temperatures in the mid to upper 90's°F. The irregular rainfall has resulted in variable soybean ratings from very good to very poor. Soybeans in the state are 46% flowering and 27% filling pods with short soil moisture in most of the state.
Goias - Soybeans in Goias were 3% harvested as of late last week. Wet weather in southwestern Goias is slowing the harvest in that region. According to IFAG, the statewide soybean yield is expected to be 68 sacks per hectare (60.7 bu/ac) compared to 70 sacks per hectare (62.5 bu/ac) in 2024/25. The 2025/26 production is expected to be below 20 million tons.
Brazilian soybean sales - Safras & Mercado reported last week that Brazilian farmers had sold 33.9% of their anticipated 2025/26 soybeans as of February 6th compared to 42.4% last year and 45.1% average. This represents an advance of 3.6% compared to the prior month.