Mar 03, 2026
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 178.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall last week in Brazil favored northern locations once again with only light showers in southern areas. Dryness lingers in the southern safrinha areas especially in northern Parana and southern Sao Paulo. The forecast for this week is calling for more rainfall in northern areas and continued dryer-than-normal weather in southern areas.
Brazil's soybeans were 39% harvested as of late last week compared to 50% last year according to AgRural. This represented an advance of 9% for the week. This is the slowest harvest pace in five years. Wet weather continues to slow the harvest pace in Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southeastern Brazil.
There are two major concerns in Brazil. The first is the poor-quality soybeans coming out of northern Mato Grosso, which will trim yields in the region. The extent of the yield losses is yet to be determined, but that issue is mostly behind us. The other concern is dryness in Rio Grande do Sul and that issue is still ahead of us.
With uncertainly on both fronts, I decided to leave the Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 178.0 million tons with a neutral to lower bias. It appears that I am not the only analysts that is uncertain about Brazil's soybean production.
AgRural lowered their Brazilian soybean estimate 3.0 million tons to 178.0 million due to problems in Rio Grande do Sul. StoneX on Monday lowered their soybean estimate 3.8 million tons to 177.8 million due to problems in Rio Grande do Sul. Last week, Safras & Mercado lowered their Brazilian soybean estimate 1.5 million tons to 177.7 million also due mainly to problems in Rio Grande do Sul. At the same time, Rabobank increased their Brazilian soybean estimate 2.0 million tons to 181.0 million citing good to excellent conditions in most of the producing regions.
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 78.3% harvested as of late last week compared to 82.3% last year and 70.9% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 12.5% for the week. The most advanced harvesting is in the mid-north region where 97% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest is in the southeastern region where 53% of the soybeans have been harvested. Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso for February 27, 2026 from Imea.
Rio Grande do Sul - The early soybean harvest has started in the state, especially among the early maturing soybeans. Recent rains have helped the recovery of the later planted soybeans, but water restrictions in January and the first half of February, associated with high temperatures, resulted in irreversible losses in early planted soybeans, mainly in shallow soils with low water retention according to Emater. Soybeans in the state are 8% in vegetative development, 28% flowering, 60% filling pods, and 4% mature.
Emater indicated that recent rains provided the resumption of vegetative and reproductive growth in intermediate and late planted soybeans, enabling the partial recovery of the productive potential, but more rain is needed in the state to avoid further losses. Emater is reviewing its production projection and will issue a new estimate in early March.
Parana - Soybeans in Parana were 37% harvested earlier last week compared to 49% last year and 52% in 2024 according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The crop is 40% filling pods, 58% maturing, and rated 1% poor, 11% average, and 88% good. The slower harvest is being attributed to milder weather during the growing season that slowed crop development. In areas with adequate rainfall, the soybean yields are considered satisfactory. Deral increased their estimate of Parana's soybean production slightly to 22.12 million tons, up from 22.04 in January.