Jul 06, 2026
Corn Yields in Mato Grosso Decline 15 bu/ac with El Nino vs. La Nina
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
As El Nino continues to intensify, producers are worried about its potential impact on corn yields in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest corn producing state.
In Brazil, El Nino changes the distribution of rainfall among the producing regions favoring above average precipitation in southern Brazil with increasing irregularity of rainfall in the Midwest, Northern, and Northeastern Brazil. Traditionally, El Nino can result in extended periods of dry weather and water deficits in Mato Grosso and other areas of central Brazil throughout the growing season which can impact the soybean planting and subsequently the safrinha corn planting. Additionally, corn development can be impacted by dry weather depending on the intensity and duration of the dry periods.
During the last three El Nino episodes dating back to 2014/15, safrinha corn yields in Mato Grosso averaged 5,560 kg/ha or 88.4 bu/ac. During the last three La Nina episodes, safrinha corn yields in Mato Grosso averaged 6,482 kg/ha or 103.0 bu/ac. Every growing season is different of course, but historically, corn yields in Mato Grosso suffered a 15-bushel yield reduction during El Nino years as compared to La Nina years.