Jul 28, 2021
2021 U.S. Soybean Yield Unchanged at 50.0 bu/ac
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The yield of the 2021 U.S. soybean crop was left unchanged this week at 50.0 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward.
Soybeans have not fared as well as the corn thus far this growing season and the next 4-5 weeks will determine the eventual soybean production. The soybean yields in the eastern Corn Belt should be good, but the yields in the northwestern Corn Belt are more uncertain. Additionally, the soybean growing season will be ending in 3-4 weeks in parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, so it the crop needs to improve very quickly.
The condition of the soybean crop declined 2% to 58% rated good to excellent. The 2021 U.S. soybean crop is 76% blooming compared to 74% last year and 71% average. The soybeans are 42% setting pods compared to 40% last year and 36% average.
The soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 50.0 bu/ac, and I currently have a neutral bias going forward. The soybean yields in the eastern Corn Belt should be fine, but the yields in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, which combined have about 23% of the U.S. soybean acreage, are probably going to be disappointing. The soybeans in North Dakota are rated 17% good to excellent, South Dakota is 26% good to excellent, and Minnesota is 36% good to excellent.
A key swing state for the soybean crop could be Iowa. The soil moisture in the state is variable with 53% of the topsoil rated short to very short. Northwest Iowa is rated 70% short to very short, while southeast Iowa is rated 13% short to very short.
The forecast looks worrisome for the northwestern Corn Belt with hotter and dry conditions at least in the short term.