Feb 13, 2015

Conab Lowers 2014/15 Brazilian Soy Estimate in February Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their fifth evaluation of the Brazilian crops, Conab lowered the 2014/15 Brazilian soybean crop by 1.3 million tons from 95.91 million in January to 94.57 million in February. The total Brazilian corn crop was also trimmed 0.65 million tons from 79.05 million in January to 78.39 million in February.

In their February report, Conab released their first assessment of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil. They lowered the safrinha corn acreage by 2.5% compared to last growing season. They estimated that the safrinha corn acreage would decline by 5% in Mato Grosso, 1.7% in Parana, and 2% in Goias. They left the safrinha corn acreage unchanged from last year in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Mato Grosso will plant 34% of the total safrinha corn acreage in 2014/15 and Parana will plant 21%.

The yield of the 2014/15 safrinha corn crop is estimated at 5,375 kg/ha (82.7 bu/ac), which is 2.3% higher than last year's yield of 5,254 kg/ha (80.9 bu/ac). The safrinha corn production is estimated at 48.27 million tons or down 0.3% from the 48.39 million tons produced last year. They stated that the only area where there might be weather problems for the safrinha corn crop was in western Bahia and southern Piaui.

Brazil's full-season corn estimate was increased 0.48 million tons from their January estimated from 29.64 to 30.12 million tons. The full-season corn acreage is down 6.5% compared to last year while the corn yields will be up 1.8% compared to last year (4,871 kg/ha or 75.0 bu/ac this year compared to 4,783 kg/ha or 73.6 bu/ac last year). The total Brazilian corn crop is now estimated at 78.39 million tons or 2.1% lower than the 80.05 million produced in 2013/14.

The 2014/15 Brazilian soybean estimate was lowered 1.3 million tons from 95.91 million tons in January to the current 94.57 million tons. This year's soybean acreage is estimated at 31.5 million hectares or 4.4% more than the 30.17 million hectares last year. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,002 kg/ha (43.5 bu/ac) or 5.2% higher than the 2,854 kg/ha (41.3 bu/ac) achieved last year. Even with these reductions, the Brazilian soybean estimate is still a record large crop which is 9.8% or 8.45 million tons more than last year (94.57 vs 86.12 million tons). In their commentary, they did indicate that dryness in central and eastern Brazil hurt soybean yields while favorable conditions are helping soybean yields in southern Brazil.