Nov 29, 2018

2018/19 Crops in Brazil off to a Very Good Start

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

This has been probably the best start to the Brazilian soybean crop in recent memory. The weather in Brazil continues to be beneficial for the planting and development of the soybean crop.

The crop was planted record early and the early harvest will start before the end of December. I would estimate that approximately 95% of the crop is rated in good to excellent condition and I am hard pressed to find any significant problems with the crop. Therefore, I thought the crop is far enough along to be more optimistic concerning the overall production.

There have been good rains all across Brazil and there is more rain in the forecast. The near term forecast is calling for ample amounts of rainfall across central, eastern, and northeastern Brazil. The weather in southern Brazil will be somewhat dryer this week.

There are some concerns that the rainfall may be too much in northeastern Brazil, but let's wait and see how much falls and where. The soils of central Brazil drain very quickly, the temperatures in central Brazil are very hot this time of the year and the sun is almost directly overhead. All these factors can contribute to a rapid drying out of saturated soils.

In fact, the sun will be directly above the Tropic of Capricorn, which runs through northern Parana, on December 21. That means the sun is directly overhead twice a year all across central Brazil. The intense sunlight is good for photosynthesis as long as there is ample moisture, but it also means that the soils can dry out very quickly if there is a lack of rainfall.

The 2018/19 soybean crop in Brazil is 89% planted compared to 84% last year and 78% for the 5-year average. Soybean planting continues to be record fast across nearly all of Brazil.

Soybean planting in Mato Grosso is complete and the early soybean harvest will start in western Mato Grosso and in the mid-north region of the state by the end of December. Planting in Parana is 95% complete, which is 1% behind last year. The soybeans in Parana are 14% flowering, 3% filling pods and the crop is rated 3% average and 97% good.

Everything seems to be on track for a very good Brazilian soybean crop. The thing to watch this week will be if there is too much rainfall in central and northeastern Brazil and if the weather stays dryer than normal across southern Brazil.