Jul 31, 2020

Brazilian Corn Acreage could Increase 2.3% in 2020/21

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazilian farmers will start planting their 2020/21 corn in mid-August if the conditions are favorable, so it's time to take look at the potential 2020/21 Brazilian corn acreage. These are my initial estimates and they could easily change before the planting is complete.

2020/21 Brazil Corn Acreage up 2.3% - Brazilian corn producers also had a very good 2019/20 growing season with record high domestic corn prices. For example, Deral reported that farmers in Parana registered the best year ever when you compare the cost of producing corn vs. the price of corn.

The 2020/21 Brazilian corn acreage is estimated at 18.87 million hectares (46.6 million acres), which would represent an increase of 0.44 million hectares (1.08 million acres) or 2.3% compared to Conab's estimate of 18.43 million hectares for the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop (45.5 million acres). The full-season corn acreage could decline 2% to 4.13 million hectares (10.2 million acres) and the safrinha corn acreage could increase 4% to 14.23 million hectares (35.14 million acres).

The state of Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's largest full-season corn producing state and farmers in the state had a very bad corn crop in 2019/20 due to a severe drought. Conversely, safrinha corn producers in Brazil generally had a good year in 2019/20 due to record high corn prices.

The 2020/21 Brazilian corn production is estimated at 105.0 million tons which would represent an increase of 4.4 million tons or 4.4% compared to Conab's estimate of 100.5 million tons for the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop.

Factors that could influence the corn expansion in Brazil include:

Factors that could limit corn expansion in Brazil include:

Corn Planting Sequence in Brazil