Feb 27, 2014

Secretary of Agriculture Downgrades Parana's Soy Estimate

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest report released two days ago, the Secretary of Agriculture (Deral) for the state of Parana in southern Brazil indicated that their estimate of the 2013/14 soybean crop has declined 12.2% since their January estimate. The current estimate of 14.47 million tons is down 2.15 million from their January estimate of 16.48 million tons.

The declining production the result of the hot and dry conditions during January and early February when the crop was in the critical pod filling phase. The crop was progressing normally until the second half of January when high temperatures and a lack of soil moisture took its toll. Parana is the second leading soybean producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso.

The weather has also impacted full-season corn production in the state as well. Deral now estimates that the full-season corn crop will be 5.5 million tons, which is down from their previous estimate of 5.62 million tons (-2.1%). Corn yields were most impacted in the northern regions of the state, but some of the losses were compensated for by better than expected yields in southern Parana.

The adverse weather also impacted the early growth of the safrinhacorn which is planted after the soybeans are harvested. The dry soils impeded germination and some farmers are waiting for additional moisture before they plant their corn. Deral had already anticipated that the safrinhacorn acreage in the state would decline by 10% or 11%, but the decline may now be more than originally anticipated. The safrinha corn crop is now larger than the full-season corn crop in the state, but some farmers have indicated that will plant wheat instead of corn for the second crop.