Jul 12, 2016
Low Safrinha Corn Yields in Brazil should not be a Surprise
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The markets reacted with shock to the lower safrinha corn production estimate released by Conab last Thursday.
I have mentioned many time over the past few years that the safrinha corn yields have benefited from extended rainy seasons from 2011/12 through the 2014/15 growing season.
Below is a history of acreage, yields, and production of full-season corn, safrinha corn, and soybeans in Brazil.
I realize that corn hybrids have improved tremendously over the last few years and improved production practices have also contributed to higher yields, but the weather is still the most important factor for safrinha corn yields.
  | First Crop Corn | First Crop Corn |   | Second Crop Corn | Second Crop Corn |   | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Area | Prod. | Yield | Area | Prod. | Yield | ||
  | mha | mt | kg/ha | bu/ac | mha | mt | kg/ha | bu/ac |
2004/05 | 9.021 | 27.298 | 3,026 | (46.6) | 3.186 | 7.708 | 2,419 | (37.2) |
2005/06 | 9.652 | 31.809 | 3,295 | (50.7) | 3.311 | 10.705 | 3,233 | (49.7) |
2006/07 | 9.493 | 36.596 | 3,855 | (59.3) | 4.561 | 14.773 | 3,238 | (49.7) |
2007/08 | 9.635 | 39.964 | 4,147 | (63.8) | 5.130 | 18.688 | 3,642 | (56.0) |
2008/09 | 9.270 | 33.654 | 3,630 | (55.9) | 4.901 | 17.394 | 3,549 | (54.6) |
2009/10 | 7.724 | 34.079 | 4,412 | (67.9) | 5.269 | 21.938 | 4,163 | (64.1) |
2010/11 | 7.637 | 34.946 | 4,575 | (70.4) | 6.168 | 22.460 | 3,641 | (56.0) |
2011/12 | 7.558 | 33.867 | 4,434 | (68.2) | 7.619 | 39.112 | 5,133 | (79.0) |
2012/13 | 6.783 | 34.576 | 5,097 | (78.4) | 9.046 | 46.928 | 5,187 | (79.8) |
2013/14 | 6.683 | 31.652 | 4,736 | (72.9) | 9.182 | 48.252 | 5,255 | (80.9) |
2014/15 | 6.142 | 30.082 | 4,898 | (75.4) | 9.550 | 54.590 | 5,716 | (88.0) |
2015/16 | 5.440 | 26.087 | 4,795 | (73.8) | 10.314 | 43.053 | 4,174 | (64.2) |
Year | Soy Area | Soy Prod. | Soy Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|
  | mha | mt | kg/ha | bu/ac |
2004/05 | 23.301 | 52.304 | 2,245 | (35.5) |
2005/06 | 22.749 | 55.027 | 2,419 | (35.0) |
2006/07 | 20.686 | 58.391 | 2,823 | (40.9) |
2007/08 | 21.313 | 60.017 | 2,816 | (40.8) |
2008/09 | 21.743 | 57.165 | 2,629 | (38.1) |
2009/10 | 23.467 | 66.688 | 2,927 | (42.4) |
2010/11 | 24.181 | 75.324 | 3,115 | (45.1) |
2011/12 | 25.042 | 66.383 | 2,651 | (38.4) |
2012/13 | 27.736 | 81.499 | 2,938 | (42.6) |
2013/14 | 30.173 | 86.120 | 2,854 | (41.3) |
2014/15 | 32.092 | 96.228 | 2,998 | (43.4) |
2015/16 | 33.228 | 95.574 | 2,876 | (41.7) |
Area=million hectares
Production=million metric tons
Yield=kilograms per hectare and bushels per acre
Source: Conab