May 12, 2020

2020 U.S. Corn 67% Planted (56% average), Soy 38% (23% average)

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The big weather news over this past weekend was the frost/freeze that occurred in numerous states from North Dakota southeastward tough Ohio and beyond. There probably was some minor damage done to the early emerging crops, but it will take a few days to better assess the situation.

The amount of damage caused by the cold temperatures depends on a lot of factors including: how cold did it get and how long did the temperatures remain below freezing, how much of the corn and soybeans had emerged, the stage of development of the crops, and the type of weather the crops will experience post-frost.

The best type of weather post-frost would be warm and sunny and the worst type of weather would be cold and wet. The temperatures during the first half of this week will continue to be colder than normal, but there is a very welcomed warming trend setting up for later this week and into next week, but it is forecasted to be accompanied by more rain.

The 2020 U.S. corn crop was 67% planted as of Sunday compared to 28% last year and 56% average. The corn emergence was 24% compared to 9% last year and 22% average.

Corn planting continues to be faster in the western Corn Belt with Iowa 91% planted (66% average), Minnesota 89% (57% average), and Nebraska 79% (60% average). Corn planting gets slower as you go east in the Corn Belt with Illinois 68% planted (66% average), Indiana 51% (42% average), and Ohio 33% (36% average).

Even if there was not much frost damage, the cold temperatures will slow down emergence and early crop growth. The growing season starts when the crop emerges not when it is planted and corn emergence is now 24%, which is 2% ahead of average.

The 2020 U.S. soybean crop was 38% planted as of Sunday compared to 8% last year and 23% average. Soybean planting is also more advanced in the western Corn Belt with Iowa 71% planted (24% average), Minnesota is 57% (30% average), and Nebraska is 54% (23% average). The soybean planting is slower in the eastern Corn Belt with Illinois 43% planted (25% average, Indiana is 37% (18% average), and Ohio is 24% (14% average).

The 2020 U.S. soybean crop was 7% emerged as of Sunday compared to 1% last year and 4% average.

Of all the major states, North Dakota is having the toughest time getting started on spring planting. The corn in North Dakota was 7% planted (38% average) and the soybeans were 4% planted (17% average).

The spring planting continues to get off to a generally good start, but I think we have to curb our enthusiasm a little. The planting is way ahead of average of course, but the emergence is only a little ahead of average and the growing season starts when the crop emerges, not when it is planted.

One thing to keep in mind going forward is the fact that the corn planting this spring was concentrated into a narrow window, which could make the crop more vulnerable to adverse weather later in the summer because so much of the crop will be pollinating and filling grain at about the same time.