Aug 15, 2017

WASDE - Smaller Soy and Corn Crops in South America Next Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their August Report, the only major change WASDE made for the 2016/17 South American crops was an increase of 1.5 million tons for the Brazilian corn estimate to 98.5 million tons.

I thought the WASDE estimates for the 2017/18 South American crops were more interesting. WASDE is estimating the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean estimate at 107 million tons vs. 114.0 for this past growing season. The Argentine soybean estimate for 2017/18 is estimated at 57.0 million tons vs. 57.8 million last year and Paraguay is estimated at 9.4 million vs. 10.6 million last year. Therefore, they are estimating that the 2017/18 South American soybean production will be 9 million tons less than the 2016/17 crop.

They are also estimating that the 2017/18 South American corn crop will also decline, but not as a dramatic reduction compared to soybeans. The 2017/18 Brazilian corn production is estimated at 95.0 million tons vs. 98.5 million this year. The Argentine corn estimate for next year is estimated at 40.0 million tons vs. 41 million this year. Therefore, combined for Brazil and Argentina, they are estimating the 2017/18 corn crop at 4.5 million tons less than last year.