Nov 05, 2019

2019/20 Brazilian Soybean Crop 46% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

It has been an uneven start to planting in Brazil due to dryer than normal weather during September and October, especially in south-central Brazil. The weather is now improving, but some of the soybeans in Brazil are being planted a month or more later than last year. Some of the earlier planted soybeans will have to be replanted especially in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. Later planted soybeans in Brazil don't necessarily have lower yields, but it does increase the risk of lower yields. For now, I thought it was prudent to be a little more conservative with the Brazilian soybean estimate.

Nationwide, the Brazilian soybean crop is 46% planted compared to 60% last year and 45% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 12% for the week. Again last week, good planting progress was made in the state of Mato Grosso, which continues to compensate for some delayed planting especially in the south-central states.

The weather in Brazil last week was dryer than normal, but the forecast is for better rains going forward. The rainfall has been generally OK in Mato Grosso, but it continues to be below normal in south-central Brazil in states such as Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Goias, and Minas Gerais.

Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso once again made good progress planting their soybeans last week. The crop is now 81.6% planted compared to 88.8% last year and 67% average. This represents an advance of 17% for the week. The most advanced planting pace is in the western and mid-north regions of the state where 93% of the soybeans have been planted. The slowest planting continues to be the northeastern region where 56% of the soybeans have been planted.

There are reports of farmers in northern Mato Grosso having to replant some of their soybeans due to poor stand establishment. The poor stands are probably the result of farmers planting ahead of forecasted rains that did not materialize.

In the municipality of Sinop, which is located in northern Mato Grosso, the ideal planting window for soybeans closes about October 25th and if soybeans are planted after that date, there probably will not be enough time to plant a second crop of corn after the soybeans are harvested. For some farmers in the region, this is the first time in ten years they are replanting some of their soybeans.

If there is normal weather going forward, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is estimating that 39% of the soybeans in the state, which would equate to 3.81 million hectares, will be ready to harvest by the end of January and that 96% will be ready to harvest by the last week of February.

On average, approximately 20% of the soybeans in the state have been harvested by February 1st, but that percentage continues to increase as farmers plant more early maturing soybeans. Last year, 23.7% of the soybeans had been harvested in Mato Grosso by February 1st. The biggest problem for harvesting soybeans in Mato Grosso is generally excessive rainfall.