Dec 12, 2018
Conab increases Brazil's Soy and Corn Estimates in Dec. Report
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In their December Crop Report released on Tuesday, Conab estimated the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop at 120.0 million tons which is up 2.0 million tons from their last estimate in November. If achieved, it would be a new record high production and 0.7% more than last year's production of 119.2 million tons, which is the current record.
The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean acreage was estimated at 35.79 million hectares (88.4 million acres), which is up slightly from last month and up 1.8% from last year. The 2018/19 soybean yield is estimated at 3,354 kg/ha (49.6 bu/ac), which is up slightly from last month but down 1.2% compared to last year's yield of 3,394 kg/ha (50.2 bu/ac).
Brazil's 2018/19 corn crop was estimated at 91.1 million tons, which is up 0.7 million tons from their November estimate and up 12.8%, or 10.3 million tons, from last year. The full-season corn crop is estimated at 27.3 million tons, which is up 0.6 million tons from their November estimate and up about the same amount from last year. The safrinah corn crop was estimated at 63.7 million tons, which is unchanged from their November estimate and up 18% from last year.
The full season corn acreage was estimated at 5.12 million hectares (12.6 million acres), which is up 0.8% compared to last year. The full-season corn yield was estimated at 5,342 kg/ha (82.2 bu/ac), which is up from their November estimate and 1.3% higher than last year.
The safrinha corn acreage was left unchanged from last month and last year at 11.54 million hectares (28.5 million acres). Conab will not adjust the 2018/19 safrinha corn acreage until their February Crop Report. Until then, they will continue to use the safrinha corn acreage from the 2017/18 growing season.
The safrinha corn yield was left unchanged from their November estimate at 5,518 kg/ha (84.9 bu/ac), which is up 16.9% from last year's yield of 4,721 kg/he (72.7 bu/ac). The safrinha corn yield in 2017/18 was severely impacted by late planting and an early end to the summer rainy season. The 2018/19 safrinha corn crop should be planted at a record early pace due to the fact that the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop was planted record early. All of the 2018/19 safrinha corn should be planted before the ideal planting window closes, which in central Brazil, is about the third week of February.
Generally the higher estimates in the December report were seen as confirmation of the record fast planting pace in 2018/19 and the good growing conditions for the crops up until the second half of November. Over the last several weeks, dry weather has started to impact the crops in southern Brazil, but the current weather trend came too late to be reflected in Conab's December report.