Jun 25, 2019

2019 U.S. Corn 96% Planted, Soybeans 85% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

U.S. Corn - The 2019 U.S. corn crop is 96% planted compared to 100% last year and 100% for the 5-year average, but in reality, the corn planting is essentially finished. If it has been too wet to plant corn up until now, no more corn is going to be planted with the exception of maybe some dairy farmers. If some dairy farmers don't think they will have enough corn silage to fill their silos, they may try to plant some more corn, but it would only be for forage and not for grain production.

The corn is 89% emerged compared to 100% last year and 99% for the 5-year average. The slowest emergence is in the eastern Corn Belt as well as in South Dakota. The corn is now rated 56% good to excellent, which is down 3% compared to last week. The corn rating usually improves a little this time of the year as the crop starts to take up nitrogen and turns a darker green color. That did not happen this year due to excess soil moisture.

Corn acreage - We will get the June Planted Report on Friday, but I do not think it will be an accurate reflection of reality because some of the farmers reported their intensions instead of what they actually planted.

I lowered the corn planted acreage 1.0 million acres this week to 85.3 million. I also think that not all the corn will be replanted and that there will be more than the normal amount of abandoned corn this year. Therefore, I am going to use a harvested percentage of 88.5%, which gives me a corn harvested acreage of 75.5 million acres, which is down approximately 2.0 million acres from my previous estimate.

U.S. Soybeans - The 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 85% planted compared to 100% last year and 97% for the 5-year average. If you use the March Intensions, there are still approximately 12 million acres of soybeans left to plant. The slowest planting is in the eastern Corn Belt where the Illinois soybeans are 79% planted (average is 97 %), Indiana is 75% (average is 97%), Ohio is 65% (average is 98%), and Michigan is 69% (average is 98%). Other states where the soybean planting is very slow are Missouri with 66% planted (average is 87%) and South Dakota with 84% planted (average is 99%).

The soybeans are 71% emerged compared to 94% last year and 91% for the 5-year average. In the first rating of the season, the soybeans are rated 54% good to excellent. The first rating is coming two weeks later than normal and it is significantly below average.

Soybean acreage - The soybean acreage is still in doubt because you can still plant soybeans for about another 10 days. But after traveling through the eastern Corn Belt, I am now assuming that not all the intended soybeans will be planted. Therefore, I lowered the 2019 soybean planted acreage 2.0 million acres this week to 82.0 million and it might end up even lower than that.

I also think that there will be more abandonment than normal this year, so I am going to estimate that 97.5% of the planted soybeans will be harvested, which gives me a harvested acreage of 79.9 million acres.