Dec 12, 2018

Dryer Weather in Southern Brazil starting to worry Producers

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The recent weather in Brazil has taken on two very different dimensions. In northern and northeastern Brazil, the recent weather has been very wet. There were heavy rains across sections of northeastern Brazil resulting in localized logistical problems, but the rains also resulted in good soil moisture which could come in handy going forward.

In contrast to northern Brazil, central and southern Brazil was generally dry last week. The dryness extends from southern Mato Grosso into Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Sul which is just now finishing the soybean planting in the state. Late last week and over the weekend, there were even reports of patchy frost in southern Brazil. It caused some problems for both soybeans and corn, but any damage was localized.

There are areas of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul that have been dry for 20-30 days. Reports are coming in of poor germination and spotty stands especially for the later planted soybeans. The forecast is calling for limited additional rainfall this week in southern Brazil, which are needed. Temperatures have rebounded in southern Brazil to the mid-90's with very low relative humidity.

Soybean planting in Brazil is now 96% compared to 95% last year and 93% for the 5-year average.

In their December Crop Report released on Tuesday, Conab estimated the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop at 120.0 million tons which is up 2.0 million tons from their last estimate in November. If achieved, it would be a new record high production and 0.7% more than last year's production of 119.2 million tons, which is the current record.

The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean acreage was estimated at 35.79 million hectares (88.4 million acres), which is up slightly from last month and up 1.8% from last year. The 2018/19 soybean yield is estimated at 3,354 kg/ha (49.6 bu/ac), which is up slightly from last month but down 1.2% compared to last year's yield of 3,394 kg/ha (50.2 bu/ac).

Thus far this growing season, it is hard to say if El Nino has had an impact on Brazil's weather. According to most meteorologists in Brazil, El Nino was supposed to result in above normal rainfall in southern Brazil and below normal rainfall in northeastern Brazil. Up until now, it appears to be just the opposite. Maybe the potential impact from El Nino has been pushed forward in Brazil. If that does turn out to be the case, then it might have more of an impact on the safrinha corn in Brazil.