Nov 09, 2016
Next Soy Harvest in Mato Grosso Earlier and Faster than Normal
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) has already predicted an earlier-than-normal and faster-than-normal soybean harvest in Mato Grosso next January and February. Their prediction is based on the rapid soybean planting pace across the state.
The 2016/17 soybean crop in the state is already 80% planted compared to 61% last year at this time. In many areas of the state, the soybean planting is already complete, making it a month earlier than last year. Based on how many soybeans were planted per week, Imea can now predict when the soybeans will be ready for harvest.
In recent years, approximately 10% of the state's soybeans were harvested by the end of January. Imea is projecting that at least 25% of the state's soybeans will be harvested by the end of next January, which would be much greater than in recent years.
They are also estimating that by mid-February, farmers in the state will have harvested approximately 5.2 million hectares or approximately 56% of the state's total soybean crop. These predictions are based on a normal weather pattern during January and early February.
During the first week of February, Imea is estimating that farmers in the state could be harvesting 250,000 hectares of soybeans per day.
An earlier than normal soybean harvest in Mato Grosso means that the safrinha corn planting will also occur early as well. This could result in farmers in the state planting more safrinha corn than originally anticipated because the earlier the corn is planted, the higher the potential yield. Favorable domestic corn prices could also encourage Brazilian farmers to increase their anticipated safrinha corn acreage.
It also means that soybeans destined for export will arrive at Brazil's ports earlier than in recent years. Generally, the first vessel loaded with soybeans leaves Brazil during the last few days of January and then the soybean exports slowly ramp up during February. The ramp up of Brazil's soybean exports could start earlier next year not only because more soybeans may arrive at the ports during January, but also because all the corn exports will be done by then so there should not be a conflict trying to export two crops at the same time.