Dec 09, 2016

Imea Increases Estimate of Mato Grosso Soybean Production

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) recently issued an optimistic assessment of the 2016/17 soybean crop in Mato Grosso. After a very disappointing 2015/16 growing season due to hot and dry conditions, Imea is estimating that the soybean production in the state will increase 9.6% in 2016/17.

Imea is estimating the 2016/17 production at 30.4 million tons, which would be a new record production for the state surpassing the previous record of 28.6 million tons set in 2014/15.

The soybean acreage in the state is only expected to increase 0.9% compared to last year. Imea is estimating the 2016/17 soybean acreage in Mato Grosso at 9.369 million hectares or 23.1 million acres. To put this in perspective, that would be the equivalent of the 2016 soybean acreage in the states of Iowa, Illinois, and half of Indiana. Mato Grosso is by far the largest soybean producing state in Brazil followed by Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.

They are estimating a statewide yield of 54.05 sacks per hectare or 3,243 kg/ha (47.0 bu/ac). The yields during the last few years have in the range of 49.8 to 52.9 sacks per hectare (43.3 to 46.0 bu/ac). The yield estimate is higher than their last estimate due to the rapid conclusion of the soybean planting and good weather thus far this growing season. If achieved, it would set a new record high soybean yield for the state.

The early soybean harvest in the state should start around Christmas. Imea estimates that as much as 25% of the soybeans in the state could be harvested by the end of January. In a normal year, about 10% of the state's soybeans are harvested by the end of January.

One of the concerns going forward is the possibility of too much rainfall during January delaying the early soybean harvest. The rainfall across the state thus far in the growing season has generally been above normal. If that trend continues into January, it could pose problems for the soybean harvest.