Dec 05, 2018

2018/19 Brazilian Crops continue to be Rated Very Good

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather continues to be beneficial for the Brazilian soybean and corn crops. Most of the crop area received rain last week with the exception of areas in far southern Brazil. The forecast is calling for more rain in northern Brazil, but dryer weather in southern Brazil, at least for this week.

I continue to rate the crops generally in very good condition. I do not see any significant weather problems right now, but we need to watch for too much rainfall in some of the northern areas and a dryer weather pattern forecasted for southern Brazil. The state of Rio Grande do Sul could start to experience some moisture stresses if the current dry pattern persists into next week.

According to AgRural, planting of the 2018/19 soybean crop in Brazil is 93% complete compared to 92% last year and 87% for the 5-year average. Planting in the center-west region is complete and any remaining soybeans to be planted are in southern Brazil and in northeastern Brazil. In the state of Parana, the soybeans are 98% planted and in Rio Grande do Sul, the soybeans are 87% planted.

I would estimate that the Brazilian soybean crop is rated 95% or more good to excellent. The one big producing state that rates the crop on a weekly basis is Parana and the soybeans in the state are rated 97% good and 3% average.

The big thing for the Brazilian soybean crop will be the early start to the harvest. Soybean harvesting in Brazil will start during the second half of December and ramp up during early January.

As you would suspect, the weather has also been beneficial for the full-season corn as well. My only potential concern for the full-season corn would be an extended period of dry weather in southern Brazil. The soil moisture is still generally OK, but that could change with a week or two of dry weather. Additionally, some of the corn in southern Brazil is starting to pollinate, so you want to be sure the crop keep receiving moisture.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the full-season corn is 89% planted and the crop is 19% pollinating and 15% filling grain. In the state of Parana, the full-season corn is 100% planted and the crop is 19% pollinating and 3% filling grain and the corn is rated 96% good and 4% average. Minas Gerais is the largest full-season corn producing state and the crop in the state is in vegetative development and generally rated good to very good.