Jul 07, 2021
2020/21 Brazil Safrinha Corn 12% Harvested, Cold Temps Worry
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
According to AgRural, the safrinha corn in Brazil is 12% harvested compared to 23% last year. This represents an advance of 5% for the week.
The coldest temperatures in 20 years resulted in three consecutive nights last week of freezing temperatures which negatively impacted the safrinha corn in south-central Brazil. The extent of the damage will not be fully known until the corn is harvested, but yields will be very disappointing and there will be poorer quality grain especially for the latest planted corn.
Drought had already lowered the yield potential for the safrinha corn and now the frosts will make the situation even worse. For the corn that was approaching maturity, there will probably be little damage. For the corn that was pollinating, the damage could be as high as 80%. The safrinha corn development in Brazil is so spread out, it is hard to judge the total extend of the damage.
For the earlier planted safrinha corn, it would be the equivalent of some corn fields in the U.S. experiencing three nights of frost in late September or early October. The yields in those fields would probably not be impacted very much.
For the later planted safrinha corn, it would be the equivalent of some corn fields in the U.S. experiencing three nights of frost in mid-July. The yields in those fields could be devastated.
Mato Grosso Safrinha Corn - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported that farmers in the state had harvested 22.4% of the safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 46% last year and 39.5% average. This represented an advance of 12.7% for the week. The fastest harvest pace is in northeastern Mato Grosso where 34% of the corn has been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in south-central Mato Grosso where 12% of the corn has been harvested.
The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso did not experience any frost, but previous dry weather has resulted in lower-than-expected corn yields.
Parana Safrinha Corn - In the state of Parana, a corn specialists from the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) estimated that 1.8 million hectares of the 2.5 million hectares of safrinha corn in the state (72%) was at a stage of development that could be negatively impacted by the cold temperatures.
Deral reported that as of last Monday, 11% of the safrinha corn in Parana was pollinating, 62% was filling grain, 27% was mature, and 2% was harvested. The corn was rated 33% poor, 41% average, and 26% good. These ratings were released before the frosts of last week.
The amount of damage caused by the frosts depends primarily on the stage of development of the crop. The greatest damage will occur in the crop that is still pollinating or starting to fill the grain. The least amount of damage will occur in the crop that is mature or approaching maturity. It takes a few days after a frost to judge the extend of the damage which could range from slight damage to potentially a complete loss of the crop.
Deral had already reduced their initial expectations of the safrinha corn crop by approximately 5 million tons to 9.8 million. The corn specialists for Deral indicated that their estimate of the safrinha corn crop will move lower once the full extent of the frost damage is known.
There will be a wide range of losses from the drought and cold temperatures. For example, in the municipality of Marechal Candido in western Parana, the President of the Rural Syndicate estimated that some fields that had been expected to produce as much as 120 sacks per hectare (114 bu/ac) may now be as low as 30 sacks per hectare (28.6 bu/ac).
Goias Safrinha Corn - The frost last week in Brazil got as far north as southern Goias, which is very unusual. According to the President of Aprosoja-GO, some of the safrinha corn in the state went 50 days without rain and had already suffered yield losses of as much as 30%. The frosts lowered the yields even more, but the full extent of the losses probably will not be known until the corn is harvested. The corn harvest in Goias should accelerate over the next ten days.