Jun 18, 2019

2019 U.S. Corn 92% Planted, Soybeans 77% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Corn planting - The 2019 U.S. corn crop is 92% planted compared to 100% last year and 100% for the 5-year average. The planting trend remains the same with the slowest planting occurring in the eastern Corn Belt. The corn in Illinois is 88% planted (average is 100%), Indiana is 84% (average is 100%), Ohio is 68% (average is 100%), and Michigan is 84% (average is 98%). The slowest state in the western Corn Belt is South Dakota where 78% of the corn has been planted (average is 100%).

The 2019 U.S. corn crop is 79% emerged compared to 97% last year and 97% for the 5-year average. Once again, the emergence is slowest in the eastern Corn Belt.

Corn acreage - If we use the March Intensions, there are still 7.4 million acres of corn left to plant. It is hard to judge the corn planted percentage this late in the planting season. The crop progress report indicated that the corn is 92% planted, but we don't know if farmers planted all their intended corn or if they decided not to try to plant any more corn and take prevent plant instead. The prevent plant dates for corn are long past and I think very little more corn will be planted. Corn usually pollinated about 60 days after emergence, so any corn planted this week would not pollinate until about the third week of August!

Therefore, I continue to assume that at least 6 million acres of corn will not get planted and when you combine the corn that may not get replanted and the corn that may be abandoned, we could end up with as much as 8 million fewer acres of corn planted/harvested compared to the March Intensions. I left my corn planted acreage unchanged this week at 86.3 million acres, but I have a lower bias going forward.

Soybean planting - The 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 77% planted compared to 96% last year and 93% for the 5-year average. As with the corn, the slowest soybean planting is in the eastern Corn Belt with 70% of the soybeans planted in Illinois (average is 95%), Indiana is 64% (average is 94%), Ohio is 46% (average is 94%), and Michigan is 53% (average is 94%). Soybean planting is also very slow in Missouri with 57% (average is 81%) and South Dakota where 70% of the soybeans have been planted (average is 96%).

The soybean emergence is 55% compared to 89% last year and 84% for the 5-year average.

Soybean acreage - For several weeks, I have been estimating that the 2019 U.S. soybean acreage will be 84.0 million acres - plus or minus 2 million acres, but I am becoming more concerned that the soybean acreage may not reach 84.0 million due to the prolonged wet conditions. If you use the March Intensions, there are still 19 million acres of soybeans left to plant. Soybeans can be planted later of course, but we are already into the second half of June and the forecast does not look good for the eastern Corn Belt where the soybean planting is the most delayed.

June 10th was the soybean prevent plant date for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska. June 15th was the soybean prevent plant date for Iowa, northern 1/3 of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Michigan, and northwestern Missouri. June 20th is the soybean prevent plant date for 2/3 of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Missouri.

I left the 2019 U.S. soybean planted acreage unchanged this week at 84.0 million acres and I have a lower bias going forward. We still have about two more weeks during which farmers will still try to plant soybeans, but I am increasingly more concerned that farmers will not plant 84 million acres.