Aug 11, 2021

Conab Lowers Brazil Corn Production 6.7 mt to 86.6 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their August Crop Report released on Tuesday, August 10th, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2020/21 Brazilian corn production by 6.7 million tons from 93.3 million in July to 86.6 million tons in August. This now puts the 2020/21 corn production 15.9 million tons or 15.5% below last year's production of 102.5 million tons.

The estimate for the safrinha corn production declined by 6.6 million tons from 66.9 million in July to 60.3 million in August. The safrinha corn yield is now estimated at 4,056 kg/ha (64.4 bu/ac) compared to the estimate in July of 4,330 kg/ha (68.8 bu/ac). The safrinha corn production is now down 19.6% compared to last year.

Brazil's full-season corn production is estimated at 24.8 million tons and the third corn crop is estimated at 1.4 million tons. With the decline in production, the safrinha corn crop now represents 69.6% of Brazil's total 2020/21 corn production.

The problem for the safrinha corn started when it was planted approximately a month later than normal. It then encountered a historic drought in many areas of south-central Brazil. The final blow was a series of frosts in July that killed much of the corn before it finished filling grain. The temperatures were some of the coldest in 20-25 years and there was even snow in the higher elevations of the states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.

The safrinha corn was 58% harvested as of late last week with over 90% harvested in Mato Grosso, but only about 10% harvested in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which are the second and third largest safrinha corn producing states in Brazil.