Aug 18, 2021

2021 U.S. Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 50.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2021 U.S. soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 50.0 bu/ac, and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.

The August weather thus far has favored the eastern Corn Belt with good rains and a lack of extreme heat. The weather has not been as good in the northwestern Corn Belt with only temporary relief to the dryness in selected areas., but there are improved chances of rainfall in the near term and longer-term forecast. Temperatures were relatively cool last week across the central and western Corn Belt, which helped to limit moisture stress.

Mid-August is a critical time for pod filling for soybeans, so any additional rainfall would certainly be welcomed especially in the western and northwestern Corn Belt. There are increased chances of rainfall forecasted for much of the Corn Belt both near term and long term. Temperatures are going to warm up for a few days and then turn cooler again in the long term. This appears to be a generally benign forecast especially for the middle of August.

The condition of the soybeans declined 3% last week to 57% rated good to excellent. The soybeans were 94% blooming compared to 95% last year and 94% average. The soybeans were 81% setting pods compared to 83% last year and 79% average.

In the August Crop Report, the soybean planted and harvested acreage was unchanged from July, but that may also change going forward. The soybean planted acreage may increase maybe 300,000 acres, but much of that increase may be compensated for by drowned out spots in central Illinois and northern Missouri.