Aug 27, 2021

Conab Estimates Brazil's 2021/22 Soy at 141.2 mt, Corn at 115.9 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In a preview of the 2021/22 growing season in Brazil, Conab released their first preliminary estimate of the upcoming season on Thursday. They are estimating that Brazil will produce 141.26 million tons of soybeans in 2021/22. If verified, that would represent an increase of 5.29 million tons compared to 2020/21 or an increase of 3.9%. They are estimating that Brazilian farmers will increase their soybean acreage 3.6% to 39.91 million hectares (98.5 million acres) due to strong prices and attractive margins.

Conab is estimating the 2021/22 Brazilian corn production at 115.9 million tons, which if verified, would represent an increase of 29.3 million tons or 33.8%. Brazilian farmers are expected to increase their corn acreage 3.9% to 20.6 million hectares (50.8 million acres). The 2020/21 Brazilian corn crop was severely impacted by late planting, dry weather, and early frosts. Conab is estimating Brazil's 2020/21 corn production at 86.6 million tons, but many private estimates have much lower estimates.

Corn yields in Brazil are forecasted to improve by 29% due to improved weather. Brazil's corn exports are expected to increase from 23.5 million tons in 2021 to 39 million tons in 2022.

Brazilian farmers may start planting their corn any time after August 1st. For soybeans, farmers in Parana may start planting their soybeans on September 10th, while farmers in Mato Grosso and several other states may start planting their soybeans on September 15th.

Brazil's southernmost states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana have received rain over the last two days after an extended dry season, so farmers in those states will now start to plant their 2021/22 full-season corn. The full-season corn in Brazil accounts for about one quarter of Brazil's total corn production.

It has been an extended dry season in central Brazil with many locations 50-60 days or longer without rain. There are light and variable showers forecasted for Mato Grosso over the next few days, but heavier rains are not forecasted until sometime during the first half of September.