Aug 26, 2021
Rains Help to Stabilize 2021 U.S. Corn and Soybean Crops
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
2021 U.S. Corn Estimate Unchanged at 175.5 bu/ac - Weekend rains favored North Dakota, Minnesota, and parts of central Iowa and there are more rains in the forecast. These rains will help to stop the deterioration of the crop, but they probably came too late to add back any yield to the corn. In the dryer areas, these rains will help to stabilize the crop as it approaches maturity.
Therefore, I left the corn yield unchanged this week at 175.5 bu/ac with a total production of 14.90 billion bushels and I maintain a neutral to slightly lower bias. My minimum for the corn is 170.0 bu/ac, but that is probably too aggressive given the recent rains. If the forecast for additional rains verifies, I will probably increase the minimum corn yield next week.
The condition of the 2021 U.S. corn declined 2% to 60% rated good to excellent. The corn is 85% dough compared to 86% last year and 81% average. The corn is 41% dent compared to 41% last year and 38% average and the corn is 4% mature compared to 5% last year and 4% average.
The corn harvested acreage was increased this week by 400,000 acres. FSA data indicated that the corn planted acreage probably increased by more than that, but increased abandonment may cancel out some of the increases.
2021 U.S. Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 50.0 bu/ac - For soybeans, the recent rains may add a little yield especially in Iowa and southern Minnesota. For South Dakota, the rains may have come too late to significantly impact the soybean yield because 14% of the soybeans in the state are dropping leaves. If 14% are dropping leaves, then about 30-35% are turning yellow, which means the plant can no longer add yield. In North Dakota the soybeans are 9% dropping leaves. Once soybeans start to turn yellow, seed growth has ended and from that point forward, the seed loses moisture.
The soybean yield was left unchanged at 50.0 bu/ac with a total production of 4.33 billion bushels. I view the recent rains as helping to stabilize the soybean crop. The planted and harvested acreage for soybeans were left unchanged. I have the minimum soybean yield at 46.0 bu/ac, but that is probably too aggressive give the recent rains. If the forecast for additional rains verifies, I will probably increase the minimum soybean yield next week.
The condition of the 2021 U.S. soybeans declined 1% last week to 56% rated good to excellent. The soybeans are 97% blooming compared to 99% last year and 97% average. The soybeans are 88% setting pods compared to 91% last year and 87% average and the soybeans are 3% dropping leaves compared to 4% last year and 3% average