Sep 02, 2021
Recent Rains Stabilize U.S. Crops
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
2021 U.S. Corn - The 2021 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 175.5 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward. This week's neutral bias is an improvement compared to most of the summer when my bias was neutral to lower.
The weather changed 180ยบ last week and over the weekend with the western and northwestern Corn Belt receiving a lot of rain and the eastern Corn Belt remaining mostly dry. Generous rains fell across northern Iowa, most of Minnesota, and parts of eastern South Dakota and North Dakota. More rain is in the forecast for northwestern Corn Belt this week.
It would have been much better if these rains in the western Corn Belt had occurred in early August, but better late than never. These rains have helped to stabilize the crops and mitigate much of the downside risk. The improved moisture should benefit the soybeans more than the corn.
With most of last week's rainfall occurring across the northwestern Corn Belt, some areas of dryness have appeared in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio especially with the high temperatures of last week. The minimum temperatures at night have also been elevated, which is not the best scenario for corn. There was also some corn blown down in sections of northeastern Iowa earlier last week, but the extent of the damage was certainly minor compared to last year's derecho across eastern Iowa.
Hurricane Ida's strong winds, drenching rains, and flooding could also cause some crop damage, but the worst of the storm should pass to the east of the main cropping areas of the upper Delta such as northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and the Bootheel of Missouri. Cotton might be most at risk if the bolls are open followed by corn and soybeans. There may also be heavy rains in western Tennessee, which would not be welcomed.
The corn condition was unchanged last week at 60% rated good to excellent. The corn is 91% dough compared to 93% last year and 89% average. The corn is 59% dented compared to 60% last year and 55% average and the corn is 9% mature compared to 11% last year and 10% average.
2021 U.S. Soybeans - The 2021 U.S. soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 50.0 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward. The neutral bias is an improvement compared to the last several weeks when I had a neutral to lower bias.
The increased rainfall in the western and northwestern Corn Belt should benefit the later developing soybeans. The earlier maturing soybeans in North and South Dakota were probably too far along in their maturity to benefit. In fact, the soybeans in North Dakota are 24% dropping leaves and South Dakota is 23% dropping leaves. In those two states, the soybeans are about 50% turning yellow.
Hurricane Ida's strong winds, drenching rains, and flooding could also cause some crop damage, but the worst of the storm should pass to the east of the main cropping areas of the upper Delta such as northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and the Bootheel of Missouri. Cotton might be most at risk if the bolls are open followed by corn and soybeans. There may also be heavy rains in western Tennessee, which would not be welcomed. There are some dry pockets developing in the eastern Corn Belt which may trim a little off the top end of the soybeans.
The soybean condition was unchanged last week at 56% of the soybeans rated good to excellent. The soybeans are 93% setting pods compared to 95% last year and 92% average. The soybeans are 9% dropping leaves compared to 7% last year and 7% average.