Sep 15, 2021

2021 U.S. Corn Estimate 176.0 bu/ac, Production of 14.96 bb

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2021 U.S. corn yield estimate is now 176.0 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward.

It was generally dry last week across most of the central Corn Belt with some rain in the far northwestern areas over the weekend. The forecast for the next 1-2 weeks for the central Corn Belt is generally warmer-than-normal and dryer-than-normal. That is not the best forecast for a strong finish for the corn. The hotter and dryer conditions could force a quick end to the grain filling period.

I am not quite as optimistic as the USDA, and it is possible the corn yield might decline a little in future reports. Therefore, I am estimating the corn yield at 176.0 bu/ac, and I left the maximum and minimum unchanged at 180.0 bu/ac and 173.0 bu/ac, respectively.

The corn condition rating declined 1% to 58% rated good to excellent. The corn is 87% dent compared to 88% last year and 81% average. The corn is 37% mature compared to 39% last year and 31% average and the corn is 4% harvested compared to 5% last year and 5% average.