Sep 09, 2021

2021 U.S. Corn Condition Declines 1% to 59% Rated Gd/Ex

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The condition of the 2021 U.S. corn crop declined 1% last week to 59% rated good to excellent. The corn is 74% dent and 21% mature. The five highest rated corn states are: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, and Tennessee. The five lowest rated corn states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Kansas, and Iowa.

There were widespread rains last week in the western and northwestern Corn Belt as well as across the southern Corn Belt and Ohio River Valley. The Great Lakes region received less rainfall. In the northwestern areas, the rains probably came too late for any significant improvement in corn yields.

Last week, NASS indicated that they would incorporate any pertinent acreage data into the September Crop Report instead of waiting for the October Crop Report, which is when they usually make the adjustment. It is not entirely clear why they made the change, but it could impact the corn planted and harvested acreage in the September Crop Report.

I think they may increase the 2021 U.S. corn acreage, but some of the increase may be compensated for by increased abandonment because most of the increase occurred in areas that suffered from drought during most of the summer. For example, the corn planted acreage may have increased one million acres, but the abandonment may have increased 600,000 acres, so the harvested acreage might increase 400,000 acres. For the last several weeks, I have been using a corn harvested acreage of 84.9 million acres compared to the 84.5 million used by the USDA.

The 2021 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 175.5 bu/ac, and I have a neutral bias going forward. Given a yield of 175.5 bu/ac and a harvested acreage of 84.9 million acres, the 2021 U./S. corn production is estimated at 14.90 billion bushels.