Oct 08, 2021

Conab's 2021/22 Brazil Soy Production 140.75 mt, Corn 116.31 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their first evaluation of the 2021/22 Brazilian growing season released on Thursday, October 7, Conab estimated the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production at 140.75 million tons, which is 2.5% more than last year. For corn, Conab estimated the 2021/22 crop at 116.31 million tons, which is an increase of 33.7% compared to last year.

Conab is estimating the 2021/22 soybean acreage at 39.91 million hectares (98.5 million acres), which is 2.5% more than the 38.92 million hectares planted last year (96.1 million acres). The soybean yield is estimated at 3,526 kg/ha (52.5 bu/ac), which is unchanged from last year. The 2021/22 soybean production of 140.75 million tons is 3.4 million tons more than the 137.82 million produced last year (+2.5%).

Brazil's total corn production in 2021/22 is expected to increase 33.7% to 116.31 million tons or an increase of 29.3 million tons compared to last year. This unusually large increase is due to the fact that the 2020/21 safrinha corn crop was devastated by late planting, a historic drought, and a series of frosts that killed some of the corn before it matured.

The first crop corn acreage is expected to increase 1.6% to 4.41 million acres (10.8 million acres). The safrinha corn acreage is expected to increase 5.8% to 15.86 million hectares (39.1 million acres). The third crop corn acreage is expected to be unchanged at 0.58 million hectares (1.4 million acres).

The estimated yield of the first corn crop is 6,416 kg/ha (102 bu/ac), or +12.7% compared to last year. The safrinha yield is estimated at 5,441 kg/ha (86.5 bu/ac), or +34.4%. The estimated yield of the third corn crop is 2,850 kg/ha (45.3 bu/ac), or +8.5%.

First crop corn production is estimated at 28.32 million tons (+14.5%). Safrinha corn production is estimated at 86.31 million tons (+42.2%), and the third corn crop production is estimated at 1.66 million tons (+8.6%). The safrinha corn crop will account for approximately 74.2% of Brazil's 2021/22 total corn production with the first corn crop accounting for 24.3%.

Brazil is expected to crush 52.6 million tons of soybeans in 2022, which is up 6.1 million tons from 2021. The increased crush is due to the scheduled increase in soybean oil used for biodiesel. The blend is scheduled to be B13 for January and February of 2022 (13% vegetable oil) and B14 from March to December of 2022. If those schedules are not implemented, then the crush may not increase as much as anticipated. Brazil is expected to export 87.4 million tons of soybeans in 2022.

By the end of 2021, Brazil should have imported 2.3 million tons of corn and exported 22 million tons of corn. For 2022, domestic corn demand in Brazil is expected to be 73.7 million tons with 0.9 million tons of corn imports and 39 million tons of corn exports.