Oct 13, 2021
2021/22 Brazil Soybeans 10% Planted vs. 3% Last year and 9% Avg.
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2021/22 Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at 40.5 million hectares (100.0 million acres) which is an increase of 4.9% compared to last year. The soybean production is estimated at 144.0 million tons, which is 7 million tons more than last year or an increase of 5.1%. These estimates are a little higher than Conab's first assessment of the 2021/22 Brazilian crops (see later article).
The 2021/22 Brazil soybeans were 10% planted as of late last week compared to 3% last year and 9% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 6% for the week. Mato Grosso jumped ahead with 20% of the soybeans planted followed by Parana with 19% planted.
The overall start to the 2021/22 growing season in Brazil has been average or maybe even better than average in some locations. One thing is certain, the start this year is better than last year.
Brazil short term forecast - Rainfall last week and over the weekend favored southern and western Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and areas of southern Brazil. The rains in central Brazil helped to improve the soil moisture and there are more rains in the forecast. Central Brazil is forecasted to receive ample rainfall this week, which if verified, will go a long way to replenishing the depleted soil moisture.
Brazil long term forecast - The latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecast for the months of November-December-January-February in Brazil generally shows relatively favorable conditions for crops in the major growing areas, with near normal rainfall in Mato Grosso and above normal rainfall in northeastern Brazil. The forecast shows the potential for dryness in southern Brazil, which could lead to crop stress.
Mato Grosso - The farmers in Mato Grosso had planted 20.3% of their 2021/22 soybeans as of late last week compared to 3% last year and 12% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 14% for the week, which is a very good planting week. The soybean planting in the state is now the fastest in the last five years. The most rapid planting pace is in the central, northern, and western areas of the state where approximately 27% of the soybeans have been planted.
Below is the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso from Imea. The red line is this year's progress, the dark line is last year's progress, and the dotted line is the five-year average. The green area is the maximum and minimum for the last five years.
Parana - Farmers in Parana had planted 19% of their soybeans as of late last week compared to 8% last year and 25% average according to Safras & Mercado. Excessive moisture in northwestern Parana kept the planting pace from being even further advanced. During the first 10 days of October, some areas of western and northwestern Parana have received up to 360 mm of rain (14.4 inches), compared to the average of 150 mm (6 inches).
The soybeans in Parana were 71% germinating and 29% in vegetative development and the crop was rated 0% average and 100% good.
Goias - Farmers in the municipality of Jatai in southern Goias have started to plant their soybeans but delays in delivering the inputs have them concerned. Some farmers have only received partial deliveries of their ordered inputs while others are substituting other products for what they had originally ordered. Most farmers have on hand the inputs they need to start planting, but they will need the chemicals they ordered in short order, and that is causing a concern.
Many farmers who had been waiting for additional soil moisture before they start planting, received rain over the weekend and the forecast is calling for more rainfall this week. Soybean planting is starting earlier than last year when they did not even start planting their soybeans until mid-October, but farmers are still worried about planting their safrinha on time next January and February.
Rio Grande do Sul - A few farmers in the state have started to plant their 2021/22 soybeans, but most farmers are still in the preparation phase. Some areas of the state have received too much soil moisture and farmers are waiting for dryer conditions before they start planting.
Bahia - Farmers with irrigation capabilities in the state of Bahia in northeastern Brazil are starting to plant their 2021/22 soybeans. Farmers who do not have irrigation will start planting their soybeans at the end of October or early November when the soil moisture improves. The summer rains usually arrive last in northeastern Brazil, so that is the area of Brazil where the soybeans are planted the latest.
The president of Aprosoja-BA estimates that the soybean acreage in the state will increase 60,000 hectares to 1.76 million (4.34 million acres), or an increase of 3.5%. Farmers in the state had excellent soybean yields last year and they are hoping for a repeat of good yields and strong prices. They are heavily investing last year's profits in this year's production.
The delivery of some of the inputs such as fertilizers has been delayed, but since most of the soybeans will not be planted until the end of October or early November, the inputs should arrive in time and planting is not expected to be delayed.
Maranhao - The early soybean planting has started in southern Maranhao in northeastern Brazil. In the central regions of the state, soybean planting will start in November and in the northern regions, soybean planting will start in December.
The president of Aprosoja-MA estimates that the soybean acreage in the state will increase 5% to 7% to approximately 1.1 million hectares (2.7 million acres). He is estimating that the statewide soybean yield will be in the range of 55 sacks per hectare (49.1 bu/ac) with the better areas surpassing that number. Farmers have taken advantage of strong domestic soybean prices to forward contract approximately 50% of their anticipated 2021/22 production.
Some farmers are still waiting for delivery of their fertilizers and chemicals, but planting should not be delayed because priority was given for farmers in the southern part of the state. Soybean farmers in Maranhao had a good year last year and they are hoping for a repeat in 2021/22.