Oct 18, 2021
South American Weather, Will There be a La Nina Impact or Not?
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
NOAA declared last week that La Nina has returned and is expected to continue over the next few months. They are currently predicting that it will be moderate in intensity. La Nina's are generally associated with below normal rainfall in southern Brazil and in Argentina with above normal rainfall in northern and northeastern Brazil, but it is not a guaranteed correlation.
Areas of greatest concern in Brazil would be in southern Brazil including the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul as well as Mato Grosso do Sul and southeastern Brazil. The crops potentially impacted could be soybeans, corn, coffee, sugarcane, and citrus.
After a dryer start in September, the weather during the first half of October in southern Brazil has been quite wet with heavy rains in many areas. At the current time, there is ample moisture in most areas of southern Brazil, but farmers are still concerned because they have experienced two dry years in a row with last year being the driest in many decades.
In Argentina, the area of concern would be central and northern Argentina and the crops that could be impacted include soybeans, corn, and sunflowers. The weather thus far in Argentina is about what you would expect with a La Nina - dryer-than-normal and the forecast continues to call for dryer conditions.
According to the Brazilian consulting firm Metsul, a La Nina does not always result in dry weather in southern Brazil and above normal rainfall in northern and northeastern Brazil, it just increases the possibilities of these occurrences.
Reality Check - There have been warning about a resurgent La Nina for months, but up to this point, the early planting weather in Brazil has generally been good and in fact they have received too much rain in parts of southern Brazil. Going forward, it may turn dryer in Brazil, but that is not the current situation in Brazil.
The situation in Argentina is different. They have been dryer-than-normal thus far this early growing season and the forecast continues to call for below normal rainfall. So, the dryer-than-normal weather pattern predicted by La Nina seems to be playing out in Argentina, at least for the time being