Oct 20, 2021

2021/22 Brazil Soybeans 22% Planted, Weather Improving

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather in Brazil has been steadily improving since early October. Most areas now have enough soil moisture to start planting and there is more rain in the forecast. After a somewhat slow start to the summer rains, I would now classify Brazil as off to a better than average start.

Brazilian farmers are planting their 2021/22 soybeans as quickly as possible with 22% of the soybeans planted as of late last week compared to 8% last year and 16% average according to AgRural. This is now the second fastest planting of the Brazilian soybean crop since AgRural has been keeping track, trailing only the 2018/19 growing season when approximately 32% of the soybeans were planted at this time. Mato Grosso is now 45% planted and Parana is 35%.

Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso had planted 45% of the soybeans as of late last week compared to 8% last year and 25% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 24.7% for the week, and the planting pace is now 36% ahead of last year. The fastest planting is in the western part of the state where 58% of the soybeans have been planted. Last week was a very good week for field work and the soybean planting in Mato Grosso continues to be the fastest in five years.

Farmers in Mato Grosso have sold 96% of their 2020/21 soybean production for an average price of R$ 163.96 per sack during September (approximately $13.80 per bushel). For the 2021/22 crop they are currently planting, they have forward contracted 40.4% for an average price of R$ 145.39 per sack (approximately $12.25 per bushel). Farmers have also forward contracted 2.5% of their 2022/23 crop they will plant a year from now for an average price of R$ 140.21 per sack (approximately $11.80 per bushel).

Below is the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso from Imea. The red line is this year's progress, the dark line is last year's progress, and the dotted line is the five-year average. The green area is the maximum and minimum for the last five years.


Parana - The soybeans in Parana were 35% planted as of late last wek compared to 36.6% average according to Safras & Mercardo.

Heavy rains and strong winds were recorded last week in western and northwestern Parana resulting in property damage and localized flooding. Chicken and hog producers reported wind damage to their facilities across the region.

Municipality of Doutor Camargo, Parana - In the municipality of Doutor Camargo in northern Parana, farmers who planted their soybeans in dry conditions in anticipation of rain, seem to have made the correct decision. The rains did arrive, and they are now reporting good germination and emergence. If the weather remains beneficial for the remainder of the growing season, they are expecting yields in the range of 60 sacks per hectare (53.6 bu/ac), which would be considered normal for the region.

Rio Grande do Sul - Soybean planting is just getting started in the state, which is normal for this time of the year. In the northwestern part of the state, it has been too wet to start planting and farmers are waiting for dryer conditions. The 6-10 day forecast is calling for dryer conditions especially in southern Rio Grande do Sul.

Mato Grosso do Sul - In the municipality of Aral Moreira in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the rainfall was scarce during September, but the rainfall volume picked up significantly during the first week of October in the municipality of Aral Moreira in southern Mato Grosso do Sul. It rained nearly the entire first week of October resulting in multiple inches of precipitation. In some areas, it is estimated that 10% of the soybeans will have to be replanted due to being drowned out. Approximately 20% of the soybeans in the region remain to be planted.

Other areas of Mato Grosso do Sul recorded up to 12 inches of precipitation during the first half of October. This has slowed down soybean planting somewhat, but it has recharged the soil moisture.

USDA and Conab estimates - In the October WASDE Report, the USDA estimated the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production at 144.0 million tons. In Conab's October Crop Report, they estimated the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production at 140.75 million tons.

Conab and the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) collaborated to produce the map below showing soybean cultivation in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Rondonia during 2020/21. The map appeared in Conab's October 7th Crop Report and is titled "Mapping of Soybean Cultivation Area."


Source: Conab/Inpe