Nov 12, 2021

Conab Increases Brazil's 2021/22 Soy 1.25 mt to 142.0 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their November Crop Report, Conab increased Brazil's 2021/22 soybean production by 1.25 million tons from October to 142.0 million compared to 137.3 million in 2020/21. Brazil's 2021/22 corn production was increased 0.4 million tons from October to 116.7 million tons compared to 87.0 million tons in 2020/21.

The 2021/22 soybean production is up 3.4% or 4.6 million tons from last year. The soybean acreage was increased 358,000 hectares from October to 40.27 million hectares (99.4 million acres), which puts the soybean acreage up 3.5% compared to last year. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,526 kg/ha (52.5 bu/ac), which is unchanged from last month and essentially unchanged from last year.

Brazil's total corn production for 2021/22 is up 34.1% or 29.6 million tons from last year driven by the safrinha corn crop which is up 42% or 25.5 million tons compared to last year. The safrinha corn acreage is up 5.6% from last year to 15.8 million hectares (39.0 million acres) and the safrinha corn yield is up 34.4% from last year to 5,443 kg/ha (86.5 bu/ac).

Corn production is up significantly in Brazil this year because last year's safrinha corn production was a disaster. The crop was planted a month later than desired. It then encountered a historic drought and the growing season was cut short by a series of killing frosts in June and July. Many farmers in south-central Brazil indicated that their 2020/21 corn production was the worst they had ever experienced.

The 2021/22 safrinha corn production is estimated at 86.2 million tons. The production of the first corn crop is estimated at 28.6 million tons and the production of the third corn crop is estimated at 1.8 million tons. Therefore, the safrinha corn crop represents 73.8% of Brazil's total corn crop with the first crop representing 24.5% and the third crop representing 1.5%.

For the November-December-January period, Conab is forecasting below normal rainfall for far southern Brazil especially the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The rainfall in the west-central region is expected to be irregular, but close to the normal amounts. In northeastern Brazil, the rainfall is forecasted to be above normal during the period.